Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of ForecastingSUNY Press, 1998 M01 1 - 315 pages The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs. |
Contents
Chapter | 7 |
The Philosophical Anthropology | 11 |
Historical Stagesetting | 19 |
Conceptual Preliminaries | 37 |
Basic Epistemic Issues | 53 |
Some Ontological Issues | 69 |
Predictive Methods | 85 |
Trend | 97 |
The Dialectic of Credibility and Correctness | 124 |
Obstacles to Predictive Foreknowledge | 133 |
Prediction in the Sciences | 159 |
Prediction in Human Affairs | 191 |
Fundamental Limits on Predictors | 211 |
Predictive Incapacity | 223 |
Notes | 247 |
Bibliography | 283 |
Other editions - View all
Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting Nicholas Rescher Limited preview - 1997 |
Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting Nicholas Rescher No preview available - 1998 |
Common terms and phrases
accordingly actual answer astrology basis Cambridge causal chance chaos Cicero circumstances claims classical antiquity clearly cogent cognitive confidence context contingency correct course credibility crucial Delphi Delphi method Delphic Oracle developments dictability diction dictive domain economic effective ence epistemic error evidential example expect explanation fact factors forecasting foreknowledge foresight future future-oriented futuristic futurology happen impredictability indicates inductive infeasible inherent involves J. B. S. Haldane knowledge laws limited London Lottery Paradox mathematics matter metaprediction modus operandi nature Nicholas Rescher nomic Olaf Helmer ontological operation outcome Oxford particular past past-&-present patterns phenomena Philosophy of Science physical plausible possible precognition predictive question predictive success predictor present principle probabilistic probability problem processes prospects of prediction pseudopredictions Pythia rational prediction reason regarding reliable resolve scientific simply situation social sort statistical substantial sure technological theory things tion tive ture University Press volatility York
References to this book
Economic Forecasting for Management: Possibilities and Limitations Hans G. Graf No preview available - 2002 |
Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy Haridimos Tsoukas,Jill Shepherd No preview available - 2004 |