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Kæmpfer, are 2 distinct species of rhus, or toxicodendron, and will ever remain so, let the soil be either good or bad that they are planted in.
P. S. After writing the above, Mr. E. received a parcel of the officinal anacardiums, which had been lately brought from the East Indies. These have their fleshy fruit with their stalks still adhering to them. The better to illustrate this matter, he gave a figure of one of them in fig. 8. The manner of the growth of this fruit evidently shows that it cannot be the apata of the Hort. Malab. vol. 4, p. 95, tab. 45, as quoted by Linneus; the whole nut of which is inclosed in a fleshy coat, like an almond. It seems to come nearest to the cassubium sylvestre of Rumphius, Hort Amboin. vol. 1, p. 179, tab. 70; where, besides the figure and manner of growth of the fruit, he mentions that they varnish their warlike and other kinds of wooden instruments, of a black colour, with the milky juice which they draw from this tree; and that they mark themselves on their arms and other parts with the corroding juice of the nut, which continues a long time before it disappears.
Rumphius further particularly describes this plant to be of the pentandria monogynia of Linneus's method; so that it must differ entirely from the anacardium occidentale, which belongs to the decandria monogynia of that author. He likewise makes this remark, that the cashew-tree, or occidental anacardium, is not a native of the East Indies; but has been brought thither by the Portuguese, from the Brasils: and that they are no where to be found in those parts, except where they have had their settlements.
CXIII. On the Present Increase of the People in Britain and Ireland. By William Brakenridge, D. D., Rector of St. Michael Bassishaw, London, and F. R. S. p. 877.
Dr. B. intends the present communication as a supplement to his two former papers on the number of persons in London, lately printed in these Transactions. Having re-considered the subject, he thinks it may be proved, that there is no increase at all from both our British isles, after the deduction of our losses; and that in England, taken by itself, the natives would be in a decreasing state, if it were not for the supplies from Scotland and Ireland. As this seems to be of some importance to discover, because of its consequence with regard to policy, and the influence it may sometimes have, he endeavours to show it as plainly as the present circumstances of things will allow.
Dr. Halley has shown, from his table of the probabilities of life at Breslau, that the number of men able to carry arms in any country, between 18 and 56 years of age, or, as they are called, the fencible men, may be estimated as a 4th part of the whole people, children included. From which it demonstrably follows, that the 4th part of the annual increase will likewise be the increase of
the fencible men; and that their increase or decrease will always be in that proportion. And therefore, if in England the annual increase of the people does not exceed 18000, as he had before proved from the proportion of births and burials, and the whole number being 6 millions, the annual increase of the fencible men will not be above 4500. But in Scotland and Ireland this increase may be reasonably supposed to be more, in proportion as there are more marriages than in England. And therefore, to avoid any uncertainty in calculation, we will suppose the annual increase in those countries, to be double in proportion. That is, as we have from observation, assumed the births to be to the burials at 112 to 100 at an average through England, we will now allow them in Scotland and Ireland to be as 124 to 100; where the difference, which is the increase, is double to the other, and by which the whole people would be doubled in about 114 years; which is surely as much as can be supposed. And then, by the method that has been shown in his last letter, if the people in both countries do not exceed 2,500,000, the annual increase will be found to be 15,000, and that of the fencib e men will be 3750.
From the account given in the Philosophical Transactions, N° 261, the number of people in Ireland, in the year 1696, did not appear to be more than 1,034,000; since which time he thinks there has been little increase; and in Scotland they are supposed to be less than 1,500,000; and so both together they cannot be reckoned at more than 2,500,000: and therefore the annual increase of the fencible men cannot possibly be more than 3750, in both countries; which with those in England will be 8250, for the annual increase in Britain and Ireland, or a little above 8000 men. And no reasonable computation can make them more. The number then 8250 may be considered, at the utmost, as the yearly increase of the fencible men; from which all our public losses in our ordinary commerce at sea, and in our wars by land and sea, and by our colonies, are to be deducted. And it is plain, if in all these ways our losses are annually equal to about 8000 men, there can be no increase at all of our fen. cible men; and consequently no increase of our people, which must always be in proportion to them; but if our losses are more, we must be in a decreasing state.
To make a just and moderate estimate of our losses, it will be proper that we take 50 or 60 years at an average, to avoid any uncertainty. And if we begin at the year 1690, which is 66 years ago, we shall find, that during that time, in our commerce at sea, and in our wars by land and sea, we cannot have lost less than 450,000 men. To show this, it may be observed that in all bodies or armies of fencible men, which consist generally of those between 18 and 56 years of age, there dies annually about one in 54, by the natural decrease of life, as appears from Dr. Halley's table. And therefore, if there are 80000 sea
men or more, as is said in Britain and Ireland, the natural decrease, which is not here to be considered, will be about 1480 or 1500 annually. But the number must be much greater that is lost, by the various contingencies of the sea, by wreck, scurvy, and the inclemency of different climates, &c. for fewer cannot be supposed to be destroyed by such incidents, than the double of those that may be by natural mortality. He thinks there must be more; for if a ship goes a voyage for a year with 100 men on board, and returns only with the loss of half a dozen, she is reckoned to have made a healthy voyage, though the loss is above 3 times what might be expected from natural decrease; that is, though the loss by the sea only may be considered as double the other. And it often happens, that by sickness there will be much more than this, besides all the other hazards of the sea. Our ships of war in long cruising have generally a greater consumption of their people: so that our losses by sea are rather undervalued, when they are estimated to be the double of what is from the natural decrements of life. And, if this be allowed, the loss by the various contingencies of the sea will be more than 3000 annually, over and above the number that might die by natural casualties if they were at home; and in 66 years it must be 198,000.
And as to our losses by war at land and sea, of our own people, they are commonly reckoned to be 300,000, in all the three French wars, since 1690: but if we abate 50,000 from that number, that we may reason with more safety, they cannot be less than 250,000; for in all those wars, that taken together were about 20 years, there must be more than 10,000 lost yearly by land and And therefore, by our commerce and wars, from that time mentioned, we have at least lost about 448,000, or 6800 annually. In which are included those who died by fatigue, and other hardships, as well as those in actual engagements.
And if we add to this, the number that is constantly and secretly drawn from Ireland, for foreign military service and on the account of religion; and likewise those taken from Scotland, for our regiments in the Dutch service; all which cannot be less than 500 yearly, though some have thought it to be double this, we shall then appear to have lost 7300 annually, since the year 1690. To which if we put the loss of those who go from hence to our colonies, and other settlements, particularly to Jamaica and the East Indies; and, last of all, the number we have lost by the use of spirituous liquors; it will be plain, that our whole loss cannot be less, but more than 8250 annually; which is at most the yearly increase of our fencible men: and therefore that there has been no increase at all of our people these last 66 years; but rather perhaps a decrease, though it cannot be ascertained with any precision.
Now if this can be proved, as he imagines it has, that there is no increase of our people in Britain and Ireland, because of our losses, we may make this un
pleasant reflection, that our country can never be fully peopled, while our losses continue so great as they have been these last 60 years. And as the greatest part of those losses above-mentioned belong to England, because of its much greater trade, and the greater number of its people, it may be considered as in a decreasing state with regard to its natives; and, if it were not supplied from Scotland and Ireland, the decrease would be plainly discovered. For, as the people in England are double to those in both the two other countries, its losses must be in that proportion at least, or about 5300 annually, two-thirds of the whole; which is more than the increase of its fencible men.
From the above calculation we may likewise see, how small the annual increase of fencible men may be in Britain, or perhaps in any other country in Europe. For as that increase in both our islands does not appear to be more than 8250, but rather less, or about 7900, and the number of our whole people in them is not found to exceed 8,000,000, the annual increase in each million must be less than 1000, or about 987; that is, less than one in a thousand; though we have allowed the increase in Scotland and Ireland to be double in proportion to what it is in England. And from this we may form a good rule, by which we may judge of the increase, or decrease of other nations. For though they may be supposed to increase perhaps faster than we do, by more frequent marriages, the annual increase of their fencible men will not generally exceed 1000, for every million of people. And therefore, according as their losses by war, or other devastations are fewer, or exceed 1000 fencible men annually, for every million of their people, they are either in an increasing or decreasing state; and for every 1000 men that are lost, there is the increase of a million for one year destroyed; which it were to be wished, that princes would attend to, in their ambitious schemes, by which they make such havock of mankind.
Now, to account for the cause of the want of increase in our British isles, it seems to be chiefly owing to three things, that operate together. The fashion able humour that greatly prevails, by which above one-third of our people in England above 21 are single, occasioned by a variety of circumstances; and to our wars and commerce at sea, which are rather beyond our natural strength, by destroying more of our people than can well be spared, and which, if preserved, might improve our country, and augment our power; and lastly, to the use of spirituous liquors, by which numbers have been and daily are lost. But there may be easy remedies for two of those evils, by a little attention of the legislature; which would greatly conduce to the public happiness.
P. S. Since the above was written, Dr. B. had been certainly informed, that from the survey lately made of the window lights, after the year 1750, there are about 690,000 houses charged to that tax in England and Wales, besides
cottages that pay nothing. And though the number of cottages is not accurately known, it appears from the accounts given in, that they cannot amount to above 200,000. And therefore there are not in England and Wales more than 890,000 houses, or 5,340,000 people, allowing 6 to a house; which well with what he has said in this and his former letter. For if the survey made before the year 1710 was near the truth, from which it appeared, that there was not above 729,048 houses, besides cottages, or 929,048 houses in the whole; which will make about 5,570,000 people; then there must have been no increment since that time, but rather a decrease, notwithstanding the continual supplies from Scotland and Ireland, and from foreigners.
The argument from which he inferred, that there is a decrease of the inhabitants within the bills, is this; that, before the year 1743, for 20 years, the burials in them were at an average above 27,000, and the baptisms between 15,000 and 17,000; but since that time they are both gradually decreased; so that now the burials are about 22,000, and the baptisms between 14,000 and 15,000, taken at an average for 10 years: and therefore these different numbers, continued so long, cannot come from the same number of people; but that as the burials and baptisms are both decreased, the whole people must be also diminished. In his first letter he reasoned, and made his calculation, on the same principles with Sir William Petty, Mr. Graunt, and other approved authors. From a continued increase in the bills they inferred, that there must be a proportional increase of inhabitants; and Dr. B. from the continued decrease in them, in the same circumstances, endeavoured to prove a similar decrease of people. If their reasoning is just, his cannot be false; and if the bills never again appear so high, as formerly for a continuance, in healthy times, it will be he thinks a demonstration.
CXIV. A Letter to the Rev. William Brakenridge, D. D., F.R.S. with a Table of the Value of Annuities on Lives; by Mr. James Dodson, F. R. S. Dated. Dec. 8, 1756. p. 891.
Rev. Sir, as I have made a great many calculations, relative to annuities on: lives, and have otherwise contributed, as much as was in my power, to facilitate the performance of such, I thought it almost a duty incumbent on me, to compute the values of them according to your curious table of the decrements of life, inserted in the Philosophical Transactions; accordingly I have inclosed a table of them, as follows, &c..